Strategy under uncertainty

By Hugh G. Courtney, Jane Kirkland, and S. Patrick Viguerie, June 2000, McKinsey&Company.

The traditional approach to strategy requires precise predictions and thus often leads executives to underestimate uncertainty. This can be downright dangerous. A four-level framework can help.

At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that executives, by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, can predict the future of any business accurately enough to choose a clear strategic direction for it.

Read about four levels of uncertainty and learn about the fitting strategy. >>

PRIMO recommends this article. There is the experience from our round tables, masterclasses and think tank that the majority of the public risks emerge from the incompatible fit between knowledge of uncertainties – which is not a contradictio in terminis – and the quality of decisions. This article elaborates on these fits. A must read. The original ideas for this article are from 1997, but still actual and useful for present leaders.

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