UN Climate Change Paris Agreement signed


During the 2016 Opening for Signature of the Paris Agreement, held at United Nations Headquarters in New York on 22 April 2016, 175 States signed the Agreement, and 15 States deposited instruments of ratification. An historic meeting.

The agreement was approved by the 196 Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention of the Climate Change (UNFCCC) in COP21 in Paris on Dec. 12, 2015. In the agreement, all countries pledged to work to limit the temperature rise overall below 2 degrees Celsius, but are aiming to achieve a temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Of the 175 States which participated in the Ceremony, 31 participated at the level of Head of State, 2 participated at the level of Vice President; 24 participated at the level of Head of Government; 9 participated at the level of Deputy Prime Minister; 29 participated at the level of Minister for Foreign Affairs; 59 participated at the ministerial level; 1 participated at the level of former President; and 20 participated at the level of Permanent Representative.

With each country’s signing of the agreement, they have also submitted a proposal plan for actions for the agreement to be effective. This process takes many different forms and can be quick or longer, depending on the internal practices of each country.

Climate Change in Malta


An article from the Malta Resources Authority, published in 2012, but more than ever actual:

“The Maltese Archipelago (Malta, Gozo and Comino) covers a total land area of approximately 320 km2 and a 140 km coastline. Malta, which is the largest of the three islands, has an area of 245 km2 (and a coastline of approximately 100 km), while Gozo and Comino have an area of 67 km2 and 3 km2 respectively.

The climate of the Maltese Archipelago is typically Mediterranean, with distinct winter and summer season i.e. mild, rainy winters and dry, hot summers. High pressure conditions dominate during most of the time especially in the summer season. The mean monthly temperature for the summer season was 35°C over the past century. The hottest month is July with the highest monthly average temperature ever recorded being 36°C. It is not unusual for the temperature to exceed this value for short periods during the hottest month. Temperatures have never reached freezing point. The lowest monthly average temperature for the past century was 11°C, in the winter months (January and February). There were instances when air temperatures dropped below 11°C, but only for short periods of time. Exceptional extremes of 1.4°C and 43.8°C have been recorded. On average, for the past century, air temperature has tended to increase.

The sea temperature varies in conformity with the air temperature, with a yearly mean of 20°C. From September to April the mean sea temperature is higher than that of the air and lower from May to August.

Rainfall in the Maltese Islands is unpredictable and the rainfall pattern fluctuates; but the highest precipitation rates occur between November and February. The average annual precipitation stands at approximately 530 mm. During the past century, the average monthly rainfall was highest for December (approximately 94 mm) and lowest in July (practically no rain at all). On average, precipitation has decreased over the years. North‐westerly and north‐easterly winds are the most common and the strongest. The north‐easterly wind blows directly into the two main harbours on Malta, at times impeding marine operations. South‐westerly winds are less common but are generally hot and accompanied by desert dust from North Africa.” >>

The Revenant

Oscar Winner Leonardo DiCaprio on Climate Change

Source The Washington Post.

On Sunday night while accepting a long-anticipated Oscar for best actor, for his role in “The Revenant,” Leonardo DiCaprio seized the moment to highlight the plight of the planet. (video outside US residents)

“Making “The Revenant” was about man’s relationship to the natural world,” DiCaprio said. “A world that we collectively felt in 2015 as the hottest year in recorded history. Our production needed to move to the southern tip of this planet just to be able to find snow.” >>



Stunning Acceleration of Sea Level Rise

The scientists reported in a paper published Monday 22nd of February 2016 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that they have greater than 95 percent certainty that at least half of more than 5 inches of sea level rise they detected during the 20th century was directly caused by global warming. If we stop polluting now the rise will be additional 9 inches to 2 feet. That would trigger serious flooding in some areas, and worsen it in others.

On page 4 of the articles the authors compare the other and more likely scenario’s with their estimations:

Projected 21st Century GSL Rise. The semiempirical model can be combined with temperature projections for different Represen-tative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to project future GSL change (Table 2, Fig. 1D, and Dataset S1, i). RCPs 8.5, 4.5, and 2.6 correspond to high-end “business-as-usual” greenhouse gas emissions, moderate emissions abatement, and extremely strong emissions abatement, respectively. They give rise to very likely (P = 0.90) GSL rise projections for 2100 CE (relative to 2000 CE) of 52–131 cm, 33–85 cm, and 24–61 cm, respectively. Comparison of the RCPs indicates that a reduction in 21st century sea-level rise of ∼30 to 70 cm could be achieved by strong mitigation efforts (RCP 2.6), even though sea level is a particularly “slow- responding” component of the climate system.

Under the worst-case scenario investigated, if pollution continues and reduction of CO2 is not realised, what in fact is likely – we are already 15 year in the new age and there is no significant reduction the coming decennia likely, sea levels could rise more than 4 feet  (> the year 2000 level) this century , wiping out coastal infrastructure and driving communities inland. The problem would be made far worse if the Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets collapse — something that’s difficult to forecast. >>



Talking about public risk management, politics and leadership, good governance and economical innovation. PRIMO has selected Climate Change as one of main topics in public risk management. In the Think Tank ‘From Global to Local’ PRIMO will address this subject and discuss concrete management and governance measures. Within its portfolio climate change is addressed as ‘Demanded responsibility in high dynamics’.

Article Scientific American

Article Climate Central


Global Risks Report 2016

World Economic Forum

The report has been published on the14th of January 2016. In its 11th edition the World Economic Forum: “The report draws attention to ways that global risks could evolve and interact in the next decade.

The year 2016 marks a forceful departure from past findings, as the risks about which the Report has been warning over the past decade are starting to manifest themselves in new, sometimes unexpected ways and harm people, institutions and economies.

Warming climate is likely to raise this year’s temperature to 1° Celsius above the pre-industrial era, 60 million people, equivalent to the world’s 24th largest country and largest number in history, are forcibly displaced, and crimes in cyberspace costs the global economy an estimated US$445 billion, higher than many economies’ national incomes. In this context, the Report calls for action to build resilience – the “resilience imperative” – and identifies practical examples of how it could be done.”

Read online

Global Risks Report 2016


Climate change and financial stability

Breaking the Tragedy of the Horizon – climate change and financial stability

Mike Carney, Governor of the Bank of England Chairman of the Financial Stability Board, gave its speech at  Lloyd’s of London, 29 September 2015.

He focuses on the facts and the consequences for our architecture of government, safety, insurance and financial stability of the world economy. A quote:

“There are three broad channels through which climate change can affect financial stability:

  • First, physical risks: the impacts today on insurance liabilities and the value of financial assets that arise from climate- and weather-related events, such as floods and storms that damage property or disrupt trade.
  • Second, liability risks: the impacts that could arise tomorrow if parties who have suffered loss or damage from the effects of climate change seek compensation from those they hold responsible. Such claims could come decades in the future, but have the potential to hit carbon extractors and emitters – and, if they have liability cover, their insurers – the hardest.
  • Finally, transition risks: the financial risks which could result from the process of adjustment towards a lower-carbon economy. Changes in policy, technology and physical risks could prompt a reassessment of the value of a large range of assets as costs and opportunities become apparent.

While the attribution of increases in claims to specific factors is complex, the direct costs of climate change are already affecting insurers’ underwriting strategies and accounts. For example, work done here at Lloyd’s of London estimated that the 20cm rise in sea-level at the tip of Manhattan since the 1950s, when all other factors are held constant, increased insured losses from Superstorm Sandy by 30% in New York alone.

The speed at which such re-pricing occurs is uncertain and could be decisive for financial stability. There have already been a few high profile examples of jump-to-distress pricing because of shifts in environmental policy or performance.

Risks to financial stability will be minimised if the transition begins early and follows a predictable path, thereby helping the market anticipate the transition to a 2 degree world.”

Download the speech here. Listen to his speech his:

Lloyd’s City Risk Index 2015-2025


Lloyd’s City Risk Index 2015-2025

shows how much economic output 279 cities would lose annually on average (GDP@Risk) from 22 man-made and natural threats. in five categories: finance, economics and trade; geopolitics and security; health and humanity; natural catastrophe and
climate; and technology and space. The cities in the index are some of the world’s leading cities, which together generate 41% of global GDP.

The data contained in this report will help policymakers, businesses and insurers make cities more resilient. Risk is managed most effectively by societies which anticipate and learn from each disruptive event, making the next generation safer. Read the executive summary and regional analyses.

Based on original research by the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School, the Index shows how governments, businesses and communities are highly exposed to systemic, catastrophic shocks and could do more to mitigate risk and improve resilience.

Identifying the risks, modelling and measuring their impacts, and investing in greater resilience – from better infrastructure to increased insurance protection – are the first steps in this process. Read more

SONAR report

Swiss Re SONAR: New emerging risk insights

Swiss Re update report highlights new and emerging risks the re/insurance industry expects to face over the next few years:

  • SONAR report looks at 21 emerging risk themes, their potential impact and cascading effects across the industry.
  • The four emerging risks with the highest potential impact are de-globalisation, super natural catastrophes, the “great monetary experiment” and the challenge of the “Internet of Things”.
  • Key drivers of the changing risk landscape are new economic, technological, socio-political and environmental developments as well as growing interdependencies.

De-globalisation and political conflict, large natural catastrophes, financial repression and the challenge posed by the “Internet of Things” are some of the risks identified in this year’s Swiss Re’s “New emerging risk insights” report published today. The publication is based on the SONAR process, a crowdsourcing tool drawing on Swiss Re’s internal risk management expertise to identify and evaluate new threats.

Emerging risks are newly developing or changing risks which are difficult to quantify and whose potential business impact is not yet sufficiently taken into account.

Change remains the only constant in our highly interconnected world. Risks are emerging everywhere, with ripple effects across industries. Foresight information is the key to enabling fast, high-quality decision-making. >>

Download report

Divesting fossil fuels

Oslo has joined the dozens of cities pledging to divest their holdings in the fossil fuel industry

“Two years ago, the online advocacy group 350.org launched a campaign to persuade investors to move their money away from the fossil fuel industry. By 2014, according to a study by the University of Oxford, it was the fastest growing divestment movement in history – and last month, Oslo became the first capital city to pledge to divest from coal, the most polluting of fossil fuels.”

Source: CityMetric

Public Perceptions of Climate Change

Public Perceptions of Climate Change as a Human Health Risk

Surveys of the United States, Canada and Malta

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

“We used data from nationally representative surveys conducted in the United States, Canada and Malta between 2008 and 2009 to answer three questions: Does the public believe that climate change poses human health risks, and if so, are they seen as current or future risks? Whose health does the public think will be harmed? In what specific ways does the public believe climate change will harm human health? When asked directly about the potential impacts of climate change on health and well-being, a majority of people in all three nations said that it poses significant risks; moreover, about one third of Americans, one half of Canadians, and two-thirds of Maltese said that people are already being harmed.” Read more >

The Sixth Extinction?

Here an article from the old box, but still up to date, from the hand of Elizabeth Kolbert for The New Yorker. Subtitle: There have been five great die-offs in history. This time, the cataclysm is us.

“The town of El Valle de Antón, in central Panama, sits in the middle of a volcanic crater formed about a million years ago. The crater is almost four miles across, but when the weather is clear you can see the jagged hills that surround the town, like the walls of a ruined tower…

Of the many species that have existed on earth—estimates run as high as fifty billion—more than ninety-nine per cent have disappeared. In the light of this, it is sometimes joked that all of life today amounts to little more than a rounding error.


Once a mass extinction occurs, it takes millions of years for life to recover, and when it does it generally has a new cast of characters…”

Read more >


ISO 31000 – Risk Management

PRIMO has selected ISO 31000 as one of it’s main frames of thinking in approaching public risks.

The International Organization for Standardization: “Risks affecting organizations can have consequences in terms of economic performance and professional reputation, as well as environmental, safety and societal outcomes. Therefore, managing risk effectively helps organizations to perform well in an environment full of uncertainty.”

ISO 31000:2009

ISO 31000:2009, Risk management – Principles and guidelines, provides principles, framework and a process for managing risk. It can be used by any organization regardless of its size, activity or sector. Using ISO 31000 can help organizations increase the likelihood of achieving objectives, improve the identification of opportunities and threats and effectively allocate and use resources for risk treatment.
However, ISO 31000 cannot be used for certification purposes, but does provide guidance for internal or external audit programmes. Organizations using it can compare their risk management practices with an internationally recognised benchmark, providing sound principles for effective management and corporate governance. >>

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