Public Sector Research Report
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Coastal cities at threat 2050
Rising seas could affect three times more people by 2050 than previously thought, according to new research, threatening to all but erase some of the world’s great coastal cities.
The authors of a paper published Tuesday developed a more accurate way of calculating land elevation based on satellite readings, a standard way of estimating the effects of sea level rise over large areas, and found that the previous numbers were far too optimistic. Read more
Scientists warn of ‘untold suffering’
Climate crisis: 11,000 scientists warn of ‘untold suffering’
Damian Carrington.
Statement sets out ‘vital signs’ as indicators of magnitude of the climate emergency. The world’s people face “untold suffering due to the climate crisis” unless there are major transformations to global society, according to a stark warning from more than 11,000 scientists.
“We declare clearly and unequivocally that planet Earth is facing a climate emergency,” it states. “To secure a sustainable future, we must change how we live. [This] entails major transformations in the ways our global society functions and interacts with natural ecosystems.” Read more
Turning up the heat on city planners
By Garry Booth | Lloyd’s
Madrid’s climate could resemble that of Marrakech in 30 years’ time, while London will experience the sort of summer conditions that residents of Barcelona are accustomed to today. This is the finding of new research by the Crowther Lab, whose environmental scientists tested the extent to which cities around the world are likely to be affected by climate change.
By analysing 520 major cities, the scientists examined to what extent the climate of a particular city in a particular bioclimatic region in 2050 would resemble the climate of cities in different bioclimatic regions today.
Even under an optimistic climate scenario, the researchers found that over three quarters of cities are very likely to experience conditions that are closer to that of another existing city, than their own current climate. Read more
United in Science Report
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Risk in Focus 2020
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Adapt now on climate resilience
Adapt now: a global call for leadership on climate resilience
Global Commission on Adaptation
Climate change is one of the greatest threats facing humanity,with far-reaching and devastating impacts on people, the envi- ronment, and the economy. Climate impacts affect all regionsof the world and cut across all sectors of society. People whodid the least to cause the problem—especially those living in poverty and fragile areas—are most at risk.
Consider:
- Without adaptation, climate change may depress growth in global agriculture yields up to 30 percent by 2050. The 500 million small farms around the world will be most affected.
- The number of people who may lack sufficient water, at least one month per year, will soar from 3.6 billion today to more than 5 billion by 2050.
- Rising seas and greater storm surges could force hundreds of millions of people in coastal cities from their homes,with a total cost to coastal urban areas of more than
$1 trillion each year by 2050. - Climate change could push more than 100 million people within developing countries below the poverty line by 2030.The costs of climate change on people and the economy areclear. The toll on human life is irrefutable. The question is how will the world respond: Will we delay and pay more or planahead and prosper?
Download GlobalCommission_Report_FINAL
World food security increasingly at risk
More than 500 million people today live in areas affected by erosion linked to climate change, the UN warned on Thursday, before urging all countries to commit to sustainable land use to help limit greenhouse gas emissions before it is too late.
Speaking at the launch of a Special Report on Climate Change and Land by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in Geneva, experts highlighted how the rise in global temperatures, linked to increasing pressures on fertile soil, risked jeopardizing food security for the planet.
Humans affect more than 70 per cent of ice-free land and a quarter is already degraded, noted Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Co-Chair of one of three Working Groups that contributed to the bumper 1,200-page report.
Effective energy transitions
The new Energy Transition Index looks at 114 countries’ energy systems’ performance and transition readiness.
The Hague Resilience Strategy
The Hague’s Resilience Story
As the home to several international organizations including the International Criminal Court, Eurojust, Europol and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the Hague has built a strong reputation as the international city of peace and justice.
However, we cannot rest on our reputation. Today we are facing new major challenges such as climate change, growing inequalities, and digitisation of our economy, all of which will have complex and interconnected effects on our city. These challenges can partly be tackled by the sorts of technical innovations that the Dutch are famous for, but ultimately The Hague’s resilience relies on a broader approach that empowers our citizens to support one another in good times and bad.
The main result of the PRA is the identification of four discovery areas, with a combination of problems and opportunities:
- Ensuring a connected and inclusive society
- Getting everyone ready for the new economy
- Adapting to climate change
- Improving risk awareness and emergency preparedness
- Engaging partners in the city and beyond
Essential for a resilient The Hague is the city’s most important asset, its people. Public participation will be at the core of their approach, with citizens to help shape the steps the city takes.
The Risk of Leadership
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Allianz Risk Barometer 2019
Source Allianz.
Technology is breeding new threats as well as business models. Traditional risks such as natural catastrophes continue to challenge while other threats such as cyber, neck-and-neck with business interruption at the top of the Allianz Risk Barometer 2019 for the first time, reputational risk, increasing exposure to intangible assets and volatility and consolidation in the corporate environment evolve daily.
A consequence of many of the other top risks in the Allianz Risk Barometer, business interruption (BI) is the top threat for companies for the seventh year running (37% of responses). According to AGCS, the average BI property insurance claim now totals over €3mn ($3.4mn) at €3.1mn. This is more than a third (39%) higher than the corresponding average direct property damage loss (€2.2mn) with these totals significantly higher than five years ago. Losses from the largest events can be in the hundreds of millions or higher.
The eighth Allianz Risk Barometer is the biggest yet incorporating the views of a record 2,415 respondents from 86 countries. The annual corporate risk survey was conducted among Allianz customers (global businesses), brokers and industry trade organizations. It also surveyed risk consultants, underwriters, senior managers and claims experts in the corporate insurance segment of both Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) and other Allianz entities. Respondents were questioned during October and November 2018. The survey focused on large and small- to mid-sized enterprises.
Businesses face an increasing number of BI scenarios. Many can occur without physical damage but with high losses. Events such as breakdown of core IT systems, product recall or quality incidents, terrorism, political violence or rioting and environmental pollution can bring businesses to a standstill, meaning firms may be unable to provide products and services – or customers stay away – having a devastating effect on revenues. For example, retailers lost about €1bn ($1.1bn) from four weekends of protests in France at the end of 2018. In today’s uncertain political landscape, legislative change such as the UK’s expected Brexit departure from the European Union in 2019 also poses a potential BI threat with supply chain disruption anticipated. Read more
